Long BPT and BTJ

I bought 300 shares of BTJ at the open at $21.90, as well as 100 shares of BPT at $76.75. Both ended up a bit with strong finishes (BTJ at $22.30 and BPT at $76.98) with the overall market having a bad day, so I am happy with that action... I will look at the charts some more over the weekend to see if my target of ~$25 for BTJ is still advisable...
Oh, and GROW and AXR finally had that correction day I was expecting, so I will have to look at them this weekend as well to see what they look like... I would expect that I would like to see a couple/few weeks of consolidation before I would touch either of them, but today did remove quite a few traders...
Take care - Dante

12/28

Okay - so GROW continues to prove my theory, that I'm an idiot for thinking stocks can be over-extended... :) I mentioned GROW at 62 on Tuesday, stating that I liked it but it was too extended, and today it closed at over $72! Good stuff for those smart enough to have jumped in. In fact, for those who believe in the power of breaking through resistance, then today was another incredible day for this very strong stock. It's volume was not quite where I would have liked it to be, but it broke through to a new all-time high, and could conceivably continue to move up... I will not be jumping in, because - you guessed it... too extended... Guess I don't learn. :)
I really don't know what to make of DXPE, since I love the fundamentals and the stock has performed well over the past year, but it has been extremely volatile lately and I don't buy stocks with the 200-day MA over the 50-day MA... but very interesting...
I expect BTJ to get to ~25 within the next month, so I may dip my foot in that pool tomorrow, with a relatively small position.
In a bit less risky move (I guess we'll see about that), I will also be adding a position in BPT, since it is a very strong company, with a nice dividend, and has shown strong support on its 50-wk MA since August as well as its 50- and 200-day since November. I suspect that it could have some short-term trouble getting through 80, then some additional difficulty getting through the mid 80s, but with a dividend between 6 and 8% it should be a good play for a little longer term. Also, I didn't like today's action, since it did test a 3 month high and fell back, but I see this one as a bit longer term, so I won't sweat a small pull back. This stock hasn't spent more than a week below its 200-day MA in at least 3 years, so this gives me about 8-10% fall back if needed...
Take care - Dante

Should have stayed up later last night!

Well - A couple of things have been reinforced for me after looking at my list from last night... First, Always do the research now rather than later (since most of the stocks on my watch list from last night had great days today, but I didn't purchase anything), and second, nothing is too high to go higher... The 2 stocks that I liked last night, but thought were too far extended, were the 2 big winners today. GROW was up over 8.5%, and AXR was up almost 5%. BTJ also made a nice move (5%), as did DXPE (almost 7%), which made my fundamental watch list last night but did not make it past the technical screen, since I don't like that the 200-day MA is above the 50-day MA.
I still like FTK, and it really hasn't made a strong move yet (still recovering from a tough early 2006), so I will do some more research tonight and weigh in.
Take care - Dante

New Year's Resolution anyone?? :)

I'm back, for the first time in over a year, and now that I am a bit settled now in my life (moved to So Cal almost a year ago, and making good money again), it's time to do some trading again! It is nice to see the trading accounts back up into respectable range (after liquidating them to buy my house) so I can actually use a complete strategy again... But enough about that - I will jump back into the market talk. In the coming weeks I will talk more about my strategy, which borrows HEAVILY from Van Tharp and his "Trade your way to financial freedom."
Okay - so here are the stocks that hit my radar today... Oh, and this will be as real time as I can make it, kind of working through these stocks as I go...
FTK, BTJ, PSEC, BPT, CHDX, NCTY, IMKTA, TZOO (an old favorite for many) and VSNT, with a few others of interest - GROW and AXR hit the screens but appear to be too extended...
I'm beat, and will have to check back in tomorrow night (it's 11:30, and my 3 year-old will be up in about 6 hours!).
Take care - Dante

Lots of shorts, a couple of longs

Hi - yesterday's comments in green, updates in black...

WLS (still up 30%, but looks like some high volume churning going on, I wouldn’t add to a position right now) This appeared to hang on to its 20-day MA for dear life today... Tomorrow will be very telling...

CFK 7.88 high 10.50 (up 33%), currently 10.35 (up 31% - attempting to make new all-time highs, but has failed a couple of times… Watch closely for break direction, and follow it, as it could move pretty strongly in either direction) Seems to be basing here, and not that far above the 20 and 50-day MAs... could move in the near future.

ATLS 41.09 high 52.50 (up 28%), currently 48.7 (very interesting day today… This was down almost $4 today – 10%, but has fought back to only 78 cents down… could be a sign that this strong stock will continue stronger) Bearish candlestick today, but stock was up 40 cents... I'm a little uneasy on this one.

BPT 72.64 high 79 (up 9%), currently $77.05 (after a head and shoulders bottom in May, this stock has trended very steadily upward… Nothing right now to make me believe anything different should happen in the short-term) Dropped 65 cents today, but I liked that late day comeback to close above 20 and 50 day. May take a position here, but need to do some research tonight.

BBSI 18.30 high 23.50 (up 25%) currently $20.77 (up over 12% still, but today was very interesting… Bearing engulfing pattern, with a drop of over 5%, but on below average volume) Another down day - this time on bigger volume, and it broke through the 20-day MA. If it drops below $19.50 in the next few days I will consider shorting it.

PETS 8.80 high $12.05 (up 37%) currently $10.48 (up 19%, but big reversal today. Attempted a new high yesterday at $12, and since then has plummeted over 15% on above average volume… Definitely a sell signal!) Bounced off of 50-day today, but a smaller move up and lesser volume than yesterday's drop. Will watch, and if it breaks below $10 I will take a large short position).

LB 12.54 high $22 (up 75%), currently $13.09 (today was one of the ugliest gravestone dojis I have ever seen… Opened at $13, reached 15.40, or up almost 20%, now back to 13.07 – needless to say, this is NOT a good sign for a future uptrend) Dropped another 2% today, as expected.

ARD 14.60 high $21.29 (46%) currently $21 (could be setting up a flag or pennant)

NGS is another stock that has been on my screens for some time, but could definitely be looking to reverse. This stock is up over 200% since June 1, and is do for a correction (as it has only had 1 pullback so far). Further evidence is today's candlestick... Today is what the Japanese would call a spinning top, and often signifies indecision - especially when it is coupled with such huge volume! (over 5 times average volume) This looks like a terrific short-term short.

PDGE - I hope you all got in on this one! It hit my screens at $1.91, on Monday, and is already up to $2.69 (or up 41%!) on huge volume. Careful, this one could explode, or implode, but all signs point up...

HURC Looks to have hit support at 14 and bounced back up a bit near end of day. This could still drop to 10 or 11, but short-term may rebound a bit.
TGE Look out belowwwwwwwwwwwww!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

TZOO (Yes, Travelzoo!) No Travelzoo!! :) Bad day today - no longer a long play, at all...

Take care - Dante

September update!

Apparently – I will be giving monthly updates, rather than daily, but hey – other things going on… J Since the last time I updated, I’ve joined a trade group run by Tom Bulkowski – a terrific technical trader, and a man very generous with his time. I have added a link to his website at the right, and I strongly recommend his work for anyone who appreciates statistics and probability in their stock-picking/target price analysis. Just awesome data… and he gives a daily quiz to the group, which has helped me hone the chart-reading skills…
Here’s the list from last month, with the 1st price being the initial price on my screen, 2nd being the high since it hit my screen, and the last is the current price. As you can see, quite a few very nice moves…

SNHY 29.14 high 32.07 (up about 10%), currently 22.58 (down over 22%)
WLS 118.50 high 65 (up almost 40%), currently 154.50 (still up 30%, but looks like some high volume churning going on, I wouldn’t add to a position right now)
ARLP* (split-adjusted) 37.68 48 (up 27%) currently 46.44 (as mentioned below – I made a nice gain on this, but am out)
CFK 7.88 high 10.50 (up 33%), currently 10.35 (up 31% - attempting to make new all-time highs, but has failed a couple of times… Watch closely for break direction, and follow it, as it could move pretty strongly in either direction)
ATLS 41.09 high 52.50 (up 28%), currently 48.7 (very interesting day today… This was down almost $4 today – 10%, but has fought back to only 78 cents down… could be a sign that this strong stock will continue stronger)
BPT 72.64 high 79 (up 9%), currently $77.05 (after a head and shoulders bottom in May, this stock has trended very steadily upward… Nothing right now to make me believe anything different should happen in the short-term)
FINB 30.38 high $35 (up 15%), currently $33.62 (I would stay away simply because it is so lightly traded. Hammer today could be shaking some people out)
RMCF 22.24 high 25, currently $15.27 (down 31%! This one hit 25 and dive bombed… It doesn’t look like it’s going to pause here either…)
BBSI 18.30 high 23.50 (up 25%) currently $20.77 (up over 12% still, but today was very interesting… Bearing engulfing pattern, with a drop of over 5%, but on below average volume)
CRAI 53.28 high $58 (up 9%) currently $46.91 (Seems to be settling on a base around $47.50, but I have no clue on future direction)
PETS 8.80 high $12.05 (up 37%) currently $10.48 (up 19%, but big reversal today. Attempted a new high yesterday at $12, and since then has plummeted over 15% on above average volume… Definitely a sell signal!)
LB 12.54 high $22 (up 75%), currently $13.09 (today was one of the ugliest gravestone dojis I have ever seen… Opened at $13, reached 15.40, or up almost 20%, now back to 13.07 – needless to say, this is NOT a good sign for a future uptrend)
ARD 14.60 high $21.29 (46%) currently $21 (could be setting up a flag or pennant)

As you can see, many of these stocks have had monumental run-ups (WLS up 40%, CFK up 33%, ATLS up 28%, BBSI up 25%, PETS up 37%, and LB up 75%), and many of them have fallen as well. Due to market conditions being choppy during much of this time, I haven’t made money on ANY of these stocks, with the exception of ARLP, as I have been in cash most of the time. Currently, I still have only the Jan FNM puts, which are doing wonderfully well, as Fannie Mae’s stock has dropped from $60 in mid-July to the $45.75 currently. I expect it to continue lower, and see no reason whatsoever to sell these puts at this time.

This was written in my blog entry from 4/25…
I am still short FNM, and still expect it to fall further, but will probably sell the June contracts soon... I have a limit at 4.5 (purchased at 2.3), and will sell if they drop much from their current spot. The move down that I am expecting could take some time, which is why I own the Jan06 puts as well, so I will be locking in a profit on the shorter-term puts any day now.

Currently list I am tracking includes many of the stocks in the list above, along with:
PDG
PDGE
APLX
PDEX
HURC
GEOI
BOOM
PTC
TGE
CMT
PRFT
TZOO (Yes, Travelzoo!)

HURC and PTC look like terrific shorts right now, especially for HURC with the NAZ breaking thru some important trendlines and averages yesterday and today.
I’ll check back in when I have some more time, in the near future…
Take care - Dante

Update and screen

I wanted to give a quick update on the four stocks I purchased on 7/26. The only one that I still hold is PNFP, and it is on thin ice. :)
I put a price target of $94 for ARLP based on the $18 cup depth ($55-56 to $74-75), and sold intraday when it hit $95.02. Big 23% gain in 1 week, so very nice trade. It has since pulled back, but is hanging strong during this minor correction. I will continue to watch for a good re-entry point.
I lost some of my gains on RMCF, but locked in a 6% gain, with some of the shares sold at $24.30 and the remainder at $23.53. I didn't like the general market activity, and RMCF broke through its 20-day. The volume has been very low on the pullback however, and it is not in danger of breaking it's 50-day, so this is another one that will stay on the radar.
I pulled out of VNBC at $33.11, because of short-term market conditions, horribly low volume (shouldn't have purchased this one- I have fixed my screen to reflect this), and a couple of important technical failures. This one is OFF the radar, and could definitely continue lower for the next week or so.
I hold PNFP, but as I mentioned above, I will not be holding much longer. The difference here is that, while choppy, it really has held the most important (to me) technical measures. Trying to get through 20-day today, but fighting it off... Again, very low volume for this stock, and it would no longer make my screens, but I am holding for another day or two, until this one confirms direction. I was up about 4% on this one, and am now even money, but that's what happens in this game! :)
Here's my current watch list, now that I've removed the low volume stocks... Entry to my screen price, followed by current price:
SNHY 29.14 30.07
WLS 118.50 126.90
ARLP 75.16 89.20
CFK 7.88 8.94
ATLS 41.09 43.28
BPT 72.64 76.09
FINB 30.38 33.27
RMCF 22.24 23.50
BBSI 18.30 18.75
CRAI 53.28 54.49
PETS 8.80 9.97
LB 12.54 20.72
ARD 14.60 15.41
PMD 14.51 14.60
PVR 52.75 52.05

Take care - Dante

Ventured back in

Hi all - I'm back in the market today, and with very good results so far. I've been watching pretty closely, still running screens, and I am confident enough with the direction of the market that I decided to put about 75% of my portfolio to work today, purchasing 4 stocks. All of these stocks made my screens, and all of them had pulled back a little (and in Rocky Mountain's case, a lot)... All were pulling back to their 50-day ma, and out of the 44 stocks on my watch list were most intriguing....
The following is my purchase price along with today's activity:
Bought ARLP at $76.84, closed at $76.57, down about 27 cents from purchase
Bought VNBC at $33.27, closed at $33.39, up about 12 cents from purchase
Bought RMCF at $22.23, closed at $23.78, up about $1.55 from purchase
Bought PNFP at $25.05, closed at $26.12, up about $1.07 from purchase

Will keep you informed of progress, and of targets and exits when I have more time.
Take care - Dante

Sanity check

Hi all - I've been gone for some time now... Changing jobs again...
Well - I lost some money on VLCCF, but not an enormous amount since I had a pretty good stop put in... Funny though, I had to go back to this list as a sanity check, to see if I was clueless, or just wrong on VLCCF... Looking at the list from early May, it is reassuring to see how many of these stocks took off, and rather humorous to note that the one I chose to buy was not only BY FAR the worst performer, but also the one I warned you all against... :) Oh well, keep learning, right?
First price below is what it was when I posted it, 2nd price is current... I left the green flag stocks green...

HBP* $11.01 11.18 (+1.54%)
NOBH - $23.36 26.33 (+12.71%)
WLS - $88.45 92.55 (+4.64%)
EML - $21.75 23.12 (+6.3%)
PEO - $27.51 30.15 (+9.6%)
CLFC* $21.11 23.69 (+12.23%)
GVBK -$20.50 20 (-2.44%)
TAYC - $34.00 36.35 (+6.91%)
BHBC - $10.46 10.31 (-1.43%)
GFED - $22.85 23.25 (+1.75%)
PMD - $15.24 13.06 (-14.3%)
ATRI - $53.90 70.49 (+30.78%)
SMTS* $16.02 22.35 (+39.51%)
MGRC - $23.07 23.87 (+3.47%)
LB - $15.65 17.21 (+9.91%)
NICE - $38.85 37.51 (-3.42%)
PTC - $21.25 32.39 (+52.42%)
QSII - $49.51 45.53 (-8.04%)

**VLCCF - $44.65 36.59 (-18.05%!) **

CWCO* $35.33 39.01 (+10.42%)

Take care - Dante

Long position initiated - VLCCF

Unfortunately, work got in the way today and I was unable to purchase VLCCF at $45 as I'd mentioned earlier this morning (could have put a limit order in, but wanted it confirmed by volume, so...). So a purchased a 1/2 position at 2:45 CST today, at $45.95. Looking at the channel I mentioned in my earlier e-mail, I have a stop loss at $41.50, but this will move up as the days progress (and the trend line moves up)... I have a target price of $52 based on previous breaks out of bases, so if $52 is hit I will put a trailing stop right behind it. As a bonus, a dividend of $1.50/share was announced today, so if I still own the stock in late May I will get some income from this one...
Take care - Dante

May initiate position

Hi all - I will be watching very closely today... I've been studying the weekly and daily candlesticks, and daily P&Fs, of VLCCF, and will be entering into a long position if it can break through $45 on big volume. I can't figure out how to upload charts on this blog, so unfortunately I can't show what I mean, but $45 is both a long term resistance line and the top of a narrowing channel... Since it hasn't shown much volume in either direction, it could also bounce off of $45 again and retreat to the bottom of that channel at $42, or the 50-day at $40... So I will wait for confirmation.
Dante

Weekly Screen - 05/09... Signs of life

Interesting screens this week, with many of the stocks from 2 weeks ago, along with others from previous screens breaking out on big volume. With SPY showing positive volume while bouncing off its 50-wk ma, and the Qs approaching its 50-wk, and 4 times the green flag stocks from 2 weeks ago, it may be time to start tiptoe-ing into a long position or two... Will probably wait one more week, but at least there are some positives...
Asterisks are stocks that are new to my screen this week...

Capital Goods:
HBP* $11.01
NOBH - $23.22 to $23.36 (.6%)
WLS - $88.63 to $88.45 (-.2%
NOLD - $47.44 to $74.19 (56.39%)

Cyclicals:
EML - $22.32 to $21.75 (-2.55%)

Financials:
PEO - $27.50 to $27.51 (.04%) Interesting - could be resting... keep an eye on it...
CLFC* $21.11 Positive volume action since retreating to 50-wk ma
GVBK - $21.00 to $20.50 (-2.38%) Boring...
TAYC - $31.96 to $34.00 (6.38%) Approaching 52-wk high on huge volume week.
BHBC - $10.39 to $10.46 (.67%)
GFED - $23.17 to $22.85 (-1.38%)

Healthcare: Healthcare sector looking good...
PMD - $13.28 to $15.24 (14.76%) Big breakout on huge volume last week
ATRI - $49.83 to $53.90 (8.17%) Extremely lightly traded stock, so be very careful with this one.
SMTS* $16.02 Big breakout on huge volume.

Services:
MGRC - $22.09 to $23.07 (4.44%)

Technology:
LB - $12.54 to $15.65 (24.80%) Breakout in progress - new 52-wk high end of last week
NICE - $32.22 to $ 38.85 (20.58%) Breakout in progress - new 52-wk high end of last week
PTC - $19.85 to $21.25 (7.05%) Big breakout on huge volume
QSII - $46.41 to $49.51 (6.68%)

Transportation:
VLCCF - $38.96 to $44.65 (14.60%) Big move up, but not the volume action you like to see. Be careful here.

Utilities:
CWCO* $35.33

Take care - Dante

Weekly screen

Hi all - still not looking to enter the market anytime soon, but I am still keeping up with the screens... 15 stocks hit the screen this morning, down from 25 2 weeks ago. This is a definite negative for the market the past 2 weeks, since the only factor changing (since none of these stocks reported earnings) is that their price is falling below 90% of the 52-week high. Since I am not looking to buy due to soft market conditions, I have not even pared my list down due to technical qualities yet... If I did, the list would deteriorate more...
I am still short FNM, and still expect it to fall further, but will probably sell the June contracts soon... I have a limit at 4.5 (purchased at 2.3), and will sell if they drop much from their current spot. The move down that I am expecting could take some time, which is why I own the Jan06 puts as well, so I will be locking in a profit on the shorter-term puts any day now.
I am testing out my "Piranha-like" :) lists, with green, yellow and red flags... We'll see how it goes...

Green is 1) on my screen and 2) breaking out of base on volume.
Yellow is 1) previously on screen, but has recently fallen off.
Red is 1) previously on screen, 2) had moved to yellow flag 3) Breaking through 50-week MA on volume.
Only Green flags will be purchased, and only Red flags will be sold short. Yellow flags will not be posted to this blog, only green, red, and those remaining on my screens. Those stocks without color are on my screens, but not in any of the above categories.
Here are the 15 stocks on my weekly screen, plus yellow and red flags:

BASIC MATERIALS - Paper and Paper Products: MPAC (Hasn't completely broken through 50-wk, but could soon).

CAP GOODS - Misc. Capital Goods: NOLD

ENERGY - Oil Well Services and Equipment: HEP (this one scares me a little... Has been moving up consistently since its IPO last July, but the volume has not really picked up with it - Might fall pretty hard if the volume doesn't pick up)

FINANCE - Regional Banks: TAYC, GVBK

FINANCE - S&Ls: UPFC, GFED (Average weekly volume <25k, will remove from my screen next week, and update the screen to eliminate all stocks with average weekly volume below 200k).

SERVICES - Business Services: BBSI (close to confirming a break... Volume action has been very strong on this one since its January breakout)

SERVICES - Retail (Grocery): IMKTA

SERVICES - Waste Management Services: WWIN

SERVICES - Real Estate Operations: PVR (Hasn't completely broken through 50-wk, but could today).

TECHNOLOGY - Electronics & Controls: LB, NICE (A little extended right now, but looking very positive since its pullback 4 weeks ago)

TECHNOLOGY - Software: QSII

TRANSPORTATION - Water Transportation: KSP, VLCCF (This one broke out last week, but the volume wasn't exceptional... Could be a good one, but in this market there are a lot of false breakouts, so I would wait for further confirmation, or maybe even the next pullback and break on big volume)

Take care - Dante

Commodities anyone?

Hi all - I just thought I'd throw this one out there for you... Don't know if anyone has any experience, but over the past few weeks I've been getting interested in the world of commodities...There are 2 reasons why I thought I'd take a peak in this arena... 1) There seems to be a pretty strong negative correlation between the stock market and commodities, and since the stock market can go through very long bear and/or sideways periods, this could be an interesting place to profit. 2) Everyone, especially the talking heads, seems to stay away, which tells me in my gut that there might be something to it... I bought Jim Rogers' new book "Hot Commodities - How Anyone Can Invest Profitably in the World's Best Market" yesterday. So far, about 25 pages in, I'm drawn in... I'll let you know how this progresses... :)
Take care - Dante

Daily Screen - 4/20

Hi again - the initial screen returned a few more companies today, including a few that had fallen off recently. The Qs' weekly and daily chart both look brutal, however, so as I've said before, I do not expect to be long any time soon... If you take a look at the Qs weekly, last week was just horrible... A huge drop through the 50-wk ma on the largest volume since May '04... The ~4% drop on the Spyders last week was on the largest volume in over 2 years! Not conducive to longs... :) But here's the list anyway!



KSP
$34.40
$35.97
4.56%
TRUE
$27.50
$27.15
-1.27%
IMKTA
$13.32
$13.62
2.25%
SEB
$1,073.00
$1,200.00
11.84%
VLCCF
$38.96
$42.00
7.80%
HEP
$37.50
$39.96
6.56%
FCEN
$35.00
$35.00
0.00%
GVBK
$21.00
$20.00
-4.76%
NICE
32.37
$35.77
10.50%
QSII
46.41
$49.78
7.26%
NOLD
47.44
$73.80
55.56%
GFED
23.17
$22.75
-1.81%
LB
12.54
$12.50
-0.32%
TAYC
31.96
$31.86
-0.31%
UPFC
21.93
$22.49
2.55%
KGHI
28.5
$28.50
0.00%
BOOT
12.5
$12.50
0.00%
WWIN
13.74
$13.74
0.00%
MGRC
22.09
$22.09
0.00%

Take care - Dante

Daily Screen - 4/19/05

I will try to update this daily, but we'll see how that goes :). For now, I'll be putting the close price from the day before, along with the price that a stock first hit my screens:

KSP - First on screens - $34.40, Yesterday's close - $35.18
IMKTA - $27.50, $27.15
SEB - $1073.00, $1164.97
VLCCF - $38.96, $39.15
HEP - $37.50, $39.91
FCEN - $35, $36.75
GVBK - $21, $20
NICE - $32.22, $34.99
QSII - $46.41, $48.65
NOLD - $47.44, $73.65 (55.25% increase in 2 weeks! - they were acquired at a major premium)
GFED - $23.17, $23.17
LB - $12.54, $12.40
TAYC - $31.96, $31.96 (Today new)
UPFC - $21.93, $21.93 (Today new)

I don't have a great chance to look at the charts on a daily basis, so please do NOT take any of these as buy recommendations. I will not be buying anything on the long side at this time, but will continue to compile this watch list and report anything of interest.
Take care - Dante

Stock strategy

Hi - I thought I'd start this by describing in some detail my system for trading stocks. There are 4 major parts to any system, and while I am not completely where I would like to be, in the 5 years I've been trading I've come up with a system that makes good money in bull markets (not that impressive), and so far, one that makes a little bit in bear markets/bull market corrections.
The 4 components are:
Setup
Entry
Position Sizing/Money Management (i.e. size of position taken initial and/or increased or profits taken)
Final Exit

Setup:
I run a custom screens daily and weekly, utilizing Reuter's free website setup to screen out companies with "CANSLIM"-like criteria. For those who do not know, I have laid out CANSLIM's acronym below... It was developed by William O'Neil, and he has written books (including "How to Make Money in Stocks") detailing this method, so I will only mention it to say that I do not follow it in its entirety, but it is certainly a wonderful tool to begin your search.
"C"urrent Quarter over Quarter Earnings
"A"nnual Earnings
"N"ew product, new high, etc.
"S"upply, i.e. shares outstanding
"L"eader in its industry
"I"nstitutional sponsorship
"M"arket conditions favorable

Favorable market conditions really should have been first, since none of the other factors matter in poor markets, as 75% of all stocks will follow the market direction... It is possible to still pick winners in difficult markets, but why fight the current?
So, for now, the market's direction has been downward, with a positively ugly week last week. Because of this I am not long any stock, and I am short FNM (I actually own one set of put contracts at 55 due in June, and another set of Jan40 puts - both for Fannie Mae). I am, however, running the screens nightly, and just to reiterate my point above, while my screens are returning some winners, there are many of these leaders getting pounded. Long story short here, when the market conditions are strong, I may have 75-100 stocks on my daily screens, that I sift through looking for an entry point. Today I have 15, and I will not be purchasing anything until I see some market strength. I will post my daily screen in a follow-up thread.

Entry and Position Sizing:
One of the criterion above is that the stock must be within 90% of its 52-wk high, so all stocks making my initial screen have had a positive run at some point. What is important now is to determine the correct entry point, and the only way to do that is to look at charts. I use Stockcharts.com, another free site (has some terrific pay features, but I can get what I need from the free features), to view Weekly (for patterns) and Daily (for exact entry points) candlestick charts. Thanks to the advice of Piranha (Chris Perruna) I have begun to incorporate Point and Figure charts, and they have helped me in my first go through. Oh, and before I forget, check out Chris's terrific website, www.marketstockwatch.com. I will use this forum to develop my P&F chart reading skills... :)
My entry is the initial break out of a base, usually a base lasting at least 6-8 weeks. If it isn't the initial break, but has pulled back, I may still purchase, but I do not like to go beyond the 2nd breakout, as they become more dangerous as they go along. The P&F charts help with SAR, really clarifying these critical price ranges...
I will enter a 25% position at the open after the breakout. This means that I will put 25% (we can call this 1/2 position) of my entire portfolio into a trade, placing an immediate "mental stop" anywhere from 5-8% below my entry (depending on the chart and stock volatility). Doing the math, this means that I can only lose 2% of my portfolio max on any trade (.25*.08=.02), and I am perfectly fine with that.
If the stock moves up 2-3% in the first week, and the market conditions stay positive, I will add another 1/4 position (or 12.5%), and then I will add the final 1/4 position to take me to full position once it has moved upward 7.5%.

Exit and Position Sizing:
Okay - assuming I now have a full position, there are many things that will take me out of a trade. First, a confirmed market correction and/or bear market tightens up everything, as companies with huge run-up begin falling left and right (see TZOO and TASR). I put tight stops in on everything that I own, and usually try to get out of stocks prior to their earnings announcements (just too unpredictable).
In continuing bull markets, I give the stock more room to breathe, and will establish a price target upon purchase. This is usually in the 20% range, but could be higher or lower based mostly on chart patterns (and of course, changing market conditions). Once this price target is hit, I will sell 1/2 the position, and put a trailing stop in for the remaining 1/2 position. Once this trailing stop is hit, I am out of the position.

So that's it on the long side... I will follow up with the stocks that are on my daily screen today, along with a small explanation surrounding how I'm learning the short side...
Take care - Dante